Successful deals are not successful because of complicated paperwork (a la the Iran Deal). When I was in practice I made lots of deals with other colleagues, including several years of sharing office space with 3 others, and never did anything but a handshake. On the other hand I signed a complicated contract with a big medical company, which I won't name, and got screwed. Deals work when both sides get something they want that they would otherwise not have, not because of complicated diplomacy.
What's in it for Kim. Well it appears that throughout the last 3 administrations the Norks kept working and now have Nucs and ICBM's, and a year ago were showing off their prowess. Their problem, however, is that Trump loudly made it known that if Kim dared to push his red button that it would be the last thing he ever did. (I love it that Trump does his negotiating in public). Kim isn't a religious fanatic like the Mullahs so I don't think that result was too appealing to him, but he could still sell his technology and make a few bucks. But "how you gonna keep him down on the farm after he's seen Paree", or even better S. Korea and Singapore. (How about the background scenes of Singapore on TV.) Trump pushed the real estate value pretty hard and how do you ignore that. I'll bet Kim liked it and has a few visions of sugarplums dancing around in his head.
So what do we get. Well the elimination of an unscrupulous regime with Nucs is a no brainer. But a prosperous N. Korea, less dependent on China for its every breath and morsel of food would also not be a bad outcome. We would like that as well as S. Korea, Japan and the other players in the region, but what about China. It's said they like having a local puppet to screw us up, but I don't know how much of a prize it is with a desperate population and crazy scientists playing around with Nucs right next door. I don't know much about Nucs but they've got to be tricky in the wrong hands. Also I think we have more leverage over China than we give ourselves credit for. Who else is going to buy all the stuff on Amazon.
I think Trump just might pull it off. It's all very public so we'll know soon enough whether Kim is just joshing around. I don't think Trump is in it for a Nobel Prize and that he'll walk away in a New York minute if there's any horseplay on Kim's part. I read his "Art of the Deal" and just finished Conrad Black's biography. The guy is a master strategic thinker and dealmaker and after a year he knows the job better and now has a great foreign policy team. Anyone who still thinks he's a moron and a fool should reconsider.
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